Stats SA has printed the newest gross home product (GDP) knowledge for South Africa for the fourth quarter of 2020, displaying progress over the interval broadly in-line with expectations.
South Africa’s actual GDP progress for the fourth quarter was up 1.5% on a seasonally-adjusted foundation. Yr-on-year, there was a decline of 4.1%, Stats SA mentioned.
On a seasonally-adjusted, annualised foundation, progress was recorded at 6.3%, which was increased than predicted by economists and analysts, who projected This autumn progress between 5% and 5.5%.
For 2020 as a complete, projections of an annual contraction in GDP of seven% had been on the mark.
No extra annualisation
Following confusion attributable to the annualisation of GDP knowledge in 2020 – attributable to the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdown disruptions to the economic system, Stats SA mentioned it might now not use the annualised knowledge because the headline GDP statistic.
In periods of regular financial progress, annualising is a helpful method of expressing quarter-on-quarter efficiency in annual phrases, Stats SA mentioned. Nevertheless, during times of financial instability, annualising might be deceptive, as a result of it exaggerates progress charges which can be unlikely to be repeated.
“For instance, largely on account of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdown laws, actual GDP contracted sharply within the second quarter of 2020 and rebounded strongly within the third quarter,” it mentioned.
In future, Stats SA will publish the quarter-on-quarter actual GDP progress fee (seasonally adjusted) because the headline fee – ie, the headline fee will now not be the annualised fee.
“That is the observe in lots of nations. Supplementary progress charges, particularly year-on-year progress for particular person quarters and for year-to-date, will proceed to be printed,” it mentioned.
The manufacturing trade elevated at a fee of 21.1% within the fourth quarter, contributing 2.4 proportion factors to GDP progress.
9 of the ten manufacturing divisions reported optimistic progress charges within the fourth quarter. The 4 divisions with the biggest contributions to the rise had been:
- Meals and drinks;
- Motor automobiles, components and equipment and different transport tools;
- Fundamental iron and metal, non-ferrous metallic merchandise, metallic merchandise and equipment; and
- Wooden and wooden merchandise, paper, publishing and printing.
The commerce, catering and lodging trade elevated at a fee of 9.8%, contributing 1.3 proportion factors to GDP progress. Elevated financial exercise was reported for retail commerce, motor commerce, catering and lodging.
The transport, storage and communication trade elevated at a fee of 6.7%, contributing 0.5 of a proportion level to GDP progress. Elevated financial exercise was reported for land and air transport and communication providers.
The development trade elevated at a fee of 11.2% within the fourth quarter. Elevated manufacturing was reported for residential buildings, non-residential buildings and development works.
The non-public providers trade elevated at a fee of 4.8% within the fourth quarter; elevated financial actions had been reported for neighborhood and different producers.
The agriculture, forestry and fishing trade improved at a fee of 5.9% within the fourth quarter, primarily as a result of elevated manufacturing of animal merchandise.
Industries in 2020
Taking a look at 2020 total, the annual actual GDP decline of seven.0% was primarily led by decreases in manufacturing, which contributed -1.4 proportion factors based mostly on progress of -11.6%.
Commerce, catering and lodging contributed -1.3 proportion factors based mostly on progress of -9.1%; and transport, storage and communication, contributed -1.3 proportion factors based mostly on progress of -14.8%.
The agriculture, forestry and fishing trade elevated by 13.1% in 2020, and common authorities elevated by 0.7% in 2020.